Research

New labor market definition centers on how job changes spill over between counties

Timothy J. Bartik

November 14, 2024

Institute research focuses on labor markets by addressing several core areas: the causes of unemployment and the effectiveness of social safety net programs in mitigating its effects; education and training systems to improve workers’ employability and earnings; and the influence of state and local economic development policies on local labor markets. The Institute also assesses emerging trends affecting workers and labor markets in its core research areas.

Topics

Resources

Earnings power falls for Gen Xers: New Hires Quality Index for December
December 4, 2024
VIDEO: Three innovative support models to supercharge community college success
November 19, 2024
Loosening eligibility is a cost-effective way to expand unemployment benefits, research finds
October 22, 2024
Job Quality & Economic Security

Our research explores not just the number of jobs, but also the quality of those jobs and how well they support stable households and communities.

Three women look at laptop
Earnings power falls for Gen Xers: New Hires Quality Index for December
Older man works in a greenhouse wearing an apron and tending plants
Hiring slows but labor market stays resilient: New Hires Quality Index for November
woman in meeting room
Hiring dynamics changes push women closer to parity with men: New Hires Quality Index
Scott Powell at lectern
Artificial intelligence discussions feature in Upjohn Community Breakfast
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Social Insurance & Safety Net

Examinations of social safety net programs are central to the Upjohn Institute’s mission to address causes and solutions to unemployment. Our research assesses effectiveness of current social insurance programs and explores other strategies to keep people in stable jobs and minimize the effect of economic downturns.

Tired mother holding baby, with baby clawing at mom's face, as they do
Welfare changes could set states out of federal compliance: ASSA research focus
Gabrielle Pepin
San Francisco Coit Tower Telegraph Hill and city and Bay bridge behind
Upjohn Institute participates in 2025 ASSA conference in San Francisco
Brian Asquith, Yuci Chen, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Brad J. Hershbein, Gabrielle Pepin, Aaron Sojourner
Someone fills out a crude version of an online unemployment insurance claim on a laptop
Loosening eligibility is a cost-effective way to expand unemployment benefits, research finds
Illustration showing pillars with concept of woman caregiver on one pillar and elderly parent and a child on another
Governments can lessen the burden on adults caring for their parents and children
Gabrielle Pepin
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Education & Workforce Development

Building and maintaining skills for the labor force is a lifelong process, starting with prekindergarten programs and continuing throughout a worker’s career. The Upjohn Institute’s research elucidates how each learning stage and program contributes to a strong workforce.

UC Berkely campus from above
Universities use monopsony power to push down wages: ASSA research focus
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
community college electronics students with devices and wiring, papers, calculators
VIDEO: Three innovative support models to supercharge community college success
collage of dissertation award winner and honorable mentions
Upjohn Institute announces 2024 Dissertation Award winner and honorable mentions
Students in a classroom examine a wind turbine model with guarded enthusiasm
School tracking can influence long-term social and economic inequalities
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Economic Development

Upjohn Institute research offers insight into specific industries and the labor market as a whole, from locally to nationally and internationally and from both the supply and demand sides. Focal areas include manufacturing, tax incentives and regional collaboration.

Mexico map with pin showing threads
Migrants escaping Mexican drug war stimulate U.S. economies: ASSA research focus
Yuci Chen
Water flows over a dam and cascades
New labor market definition centers on how job changes spill over between counties
Timothy J. Bartik
small town aerial shot with homes and factory in background
Birth rates fall but good planning can help counties handle population declines
Brian Asquith
OECD slide with Tim Bartik photo
Tim Bartik presents an OECD webinar about local economic success
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Working Papers
What Is the Value of the Child and Dependent Care Credit?
December 2024
Author(s): Gabrielle Pepin
The Child and Dependent Car Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 increased the CDCC’s generosity during 2021 only. I find that while the CDCC is of relatively little value in its current form, increases in eligibility rates and conditional benefits under the pandemic expansion increased the credit’s value dramatically. Conditional on CDCC eligibility, higher-income households experienced the largest increases in benefit levels under the expanded CDCC, but lower-income households benefited disproportionately when measuring benefits as a share of income or child care spending.
New Employer Payroll Taxes and Entrepreneurship
December 2024
Author(s): Audrey Guo and Melanie Wallskog
How costly are taxes for young firms? In this paper, we demonstrate that even small payroll taxes significantly distort entry, growth, and hiring decisions. First, leveraging cross-sectional variation in the taxes faced by new employers, we find that higher taxes discourage new firms from hiring their first workers, with an elasticity of the number of new employers to taxes of −0.1. Second, studying changes in taxes after entry, we find that higher taxes lead more firms to exit, while also reducing employment for those who survive and leading some firms to avoid taxes by using non-taxable contract labor.
Predicting Rail Transit Impacts with Endogenous Worker Choice: Evidence from Oa…
November 2024
Author(s): Justin Tyndall
The provision of public transportation can improve the accessibility of work opportunities. However, predicting the labor market effects of new transit infrastructure is difficult because of endogenous worker decisions. I examine a large public-transit rail project on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Using block-level commuter-flow and travel-time estimates, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of location and mode choice for workers. I estimate that the new rail system increases public-transit-mode share and the employment rate but does not reduce the average commute duration, because of endogenous worker sorting. Low-income workers on Oahu capture a significant share of transit’s direct benefits because of their relative preference for both transit and the neighborhoods served by rail.
Strengthening Work Requirements? Forecasting Impacts of Reforming Cash Assistan…
November 2024
Author(s): Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez, Gabrielle Pepin, and Kane Schrader
The authors tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that are collected to administrative caseload and expenditure data to document several strategies that states currently use to comply with federal work requirements. They estimate that the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 will increase the stringency of work requirements in 23 states and that 5 states will begin to fall short of requirements. They also note that several compliance strategies available to those states do not encourage work, and they discuss changes in states’ work requirements that would promote better long-term economic and labor market outcomes for TANF recipients.
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