New research studies effects of drug violence in Mexico on Mexican emigration and on U.S. communities, focusing on population, employment and wages. The study shows that migrants escaping the drug war stimulate U.S. economies and boost employment rates for native workers. The research team comprises Mark Borgschulte of the University of Illinois, Yuci Chen of the Upjohn Institute, and Eduardo Medina-Cortina of Cornerstone Research.
Chen presents early findings from the research Saturday, Jan. 4 at the Allied Social Science Associations’ annual meeting in San Francisco. See our full conference coverage.
The Mexican drug war started in 2007, following the election of Felipe Calderón, when his National Action Party (PAN) cracked down on drug cartels. The research team finds that migration from drug violence spiked in municipios (state subdivisions somewhat akin to U.S. cities) where PAN candidates won elections by small margins compared with where they lost by small margins.
Immigrants, especially those without documentation, are difficult to track. The research team overcame the challenge with data from the Matricula Consular program.
The Mexican government issues the Matricula ID card to Mexican citizens in the U.S. The cards are popular and valuable to mainly undocumented migrants, who can use them as identification to apply for driver’s licenses in many U.S. states, for banking and other purposes. With data from all Matricula ID cards issued from 2004 to 2019, the researchers linked migrants from Mexican municipios to U.S. counties.
Limited by legal status and/or skills, most immigrants took informal low-wage jobs in sectors such as food service, cleaning and construction. In the receiving counties of the drug-war-induced migrants, employment of likely undocumented immigrants increased in these sectors, but employment and wages of native workers were not affected.
Among native-born residents of counties receiving migrants, employment rates increased, and unemployment rates decreased. Native-born residents without a bachelor’s degree experienced the biggest gains. Wages were unaffected. Firm entry increased, implying higher profits for firms.
The research will be released as a working paper in the coming months.
Chen presents "U.S. Immigration and Labor Market Effects of the Mexican Drug War" at 10:15 a.m. Saturday, Jan. 5 at the 2025 ASSA annual meeting.
See a full listing of Upjohn staff participation at the conference. Follow the #ASSA or EconConf feeds on Bluesky.
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