The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index fell 0.1 percent between December and January, to $21.20, after holding steady the two previous months. Hiring volume dropped 0.6 percent for the month and 4.2 percent from a year ago, to its lowest level since 2011. Hiring rates, which adjust for population change, dropped 4.9 percent over the year to a record low.
With new tariffs going into effect, index creator Brad Hershbein takes a closer look at hiring in the goods and services sectors in this month’s release. The NHQI wage index has fallen for both sectors since mid-2023, with the goods sector’s fall the steepest on record.
Hiring volume also declined for both sectors since 2022, with a small uptick for the goods sector in recent months. Trends suggest that the goods sector is hiring disproportionately fewer workers in high-wage occupations while, in the services sector, the hiring declines have come more from low-wage occupations.
Import taxes could worsen the hiring picture, Hershbein writes, reversing the goods sector’s recent gains and deepening the hiring decline in the service sector.
Read the full analysis or explore the index.