Projected Unemployment and State/Local Budget Needs, 2020 and 2021
	2020				2021
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Sum
U.S. unemployment rate	3.8	15.0	16.0	11.7	10.7	10.3	9.9	9.5
Total state need ($billions)		127	138	90	79	74	70	65	644
Total local need ($billions)		62	68	44	39	36	34	32	315
Total state/local need ($billions)		190	206	134	117	111	104	97	959
Note: The 3rd and 4th quarter 2020 forecasts for the unemployment rate come directly from CBO’s April 24 forecast. The 2021 forecasts for the unemployment rate are derived from CBO’s forecast that this rate will average 10.1 percent for the year and end at 9.5 percent, with my assumption that the unemployment rate changes uniformly throughout the year. The 2nd quarter 2020 forecast is based on BLS’s April 2020 unemployment estimate of 14.7 percent, and linearly interpolates to match CBO’s 3rd quarter 2020 forecast. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, author’s calculations.